Pakistan is expected to experience a sharp rise in temperatures in the coming months, with forecasts predicting an increase of 3°C to 5°C above normal levels, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
During a press conference, Chief Meteorologist Muhammad Afzal highlighted a severe reduction in winter rainfall, which was 42% below average. The shortfall was particularly significant in Sindh (63% less rain), Balochistan (53%), and Punjab (41%).
The decline in rainfall has led to dangerously low water levels in dams and reservoirs, raising concerns about water availability for both agriculture and household use. Afzal also warned that northern regions are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, worsening the water crisis and potentially leading to crop failures, disease outbreaks, and harm to wildlife. He urged the public to use water responsibly to minimize the impact.
Urban areas are expected to face intense heatwave conditions due to the urban heat island effect, which could accelerate droughts. Rising temperatures may also speed up glacier melting, increasing river flows temporarily but heightening the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and flash floods in northern regions.
Pakistan normally receives 19.4% of its annual rainfall between April and June, but this year, below-average rainfall is expected, further depleting groundwater reserves, especially in areas dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Additionally, the possibility of cyclones forming over the Arabian Sea in May cannot be ruled out due to rising sea temperatures.
As Eid ul Fitr approaches, most parts of the country will experience hot and dry conditions, with temperatures likely to remain 2°C to 3°C above normal. Karachi, in particular, may see daytime temperatures rise by 3°C to 4°C above average, making conditions even more challenging for residents.
On March 26-27, a spell of rain, thunderstorms, and snowfall is expected in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Punjab. Moderate to heavy rainfall may affect areas such as Chitral, Dir, Swat, Kohistan, and Mansehra. Meanwhile, Punjab’s plains could witness dust storms and thunderstorms.
Heavy rain in northern regions could lead to flash floods, while windstorms, hailstorms, and lightning may damage electric poles, trees, vehicles, solar panels, and crops. Landslides and slippery roads could also pose risks in mountainous areas.
Authorities have been advised to take necessary precautions to deal with rising temperatures, heatwaves, and water shortages. Public awareness campaigns should be launched to educate people on heatwave safety and water conservation.
The Met Office has urged citizens to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities, and conserve water to minimize the impact of the expected crisis.
